Dear Diary,
After a week of studying Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), I decided to pass on a purchase this morning at $70 per share, or about 11.5 times expected earnings per share over the next 12 months ($6.05). I don't like the 1.76 Current Ratio.
In a recession, great stocks can sell at 6 to 10 times earnings, so I've been more conservative than buying at Relative Value to the 30 Year Treasury Bond recently. Plus, I want to get back into making the money from the Holy Grail criteria that I've already discussed. All I see in the ballpark right now is American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Croc's Inc. (CROX), so I bought CROX this morning to catch that position up with AEO.
I will say that I was in Wal-Mart yesterday and saw some "clogs" for sale that look a good deal like Crocs, without the little jewelery, so I don't know if CROX has a vast future before it, but I do see a recovery from its current 6 times expected earnings per share.
My CPA and I are working up the paperwork on an endowment to fund projects dear to my heart. I really have no great need for personal wealth, but I do feel we need a vehicle to do our fellow man a good turn. It makes us work harder. It will fund medication for leper cures, cancer treatment, purchasing slaves their freedom in Africa, etc.
Gene
Monday, June 16, 2008
Monday, June 9, 2008
More CROX
Dear Diary,
I've been buying up more CROX, as the price stays below 6 times expected earning per share for 2008.
I also have a book on order to study arbitrage.
Gene
I've been buying up more CROX, as the price stays below 6 times expected earning per share for 2008.
I also have a book on order to study arbitrage.
Gene
Saturday, May 10, 2008
CROX Purchase Up Big in 24 Hours
Dear Diary,
Well, I was saying to myself the other day after buying Crocs, Inc. (CROX), "If this deal doesn't make me money, I should just throw in my stock market towel and go buy rent houses." I was pleasantly surprised the next afternoon to hear that the purchase at $9.96 went to $11.40.
Earnings are expected to be $1.70 to $1.80 per share this coming year, making the stock worth $17 per share on the lowest end and as reasonably as high as $36 per share on the top end.
Five deals like this a year, and you're rich.
Gene
Well, I was saying to myself the other day after buying Crocs, Inc. (CROX), "If this deal doesn't make me money, I should just throw in my stock market towel and go buy rent houses." I was pleasantly surprised the next afternoon to hear that the purchase at $9.96 went to $11.40.
Earnings are expected to be $1.70 to $1.80 per share this coming year, making the stock worth $17 per share on the lowest end and as reasonably as high as $36 per share on the top end.
Five deals like this a year, and you're rich.
Gene
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Diversification
Dear Diary,
I just sold out of about 70% of my Harley Davidson (HOG) position at $38.57, due to a ratio of Total Assets to Shareholder Equity that presents more than $2 in TA for every $1 in SHE and a ratio of less than $2 in Current Assets to every $1 in Current Liabilities. I do continue to hold some HOG for a possible recovery. I did take about a $9 per share loss on those shares sold, but I see other opportunities for diversification in my old "Holy Grail" criteria that I developed 10 years ago.
I also removed Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) from "My 20 Favorites" for having a Current Ratio problem (i.e. Current Assets to Current Liabilities).
I made a buy of Crocs, Inc. (CROX) at $9.96 per share with a p/e ratio of 5, plus a minimal brokerage fee.
I also bought Coach (COH) at $35.33 and Kinetic Concepts (KCI) at $38.31, plus a minimal brokerage fee.
Gene
I just sold out of about 70% of my Harley Davidson (HOG) position at $38.57, due to a ratio of Total Assets to Shareholder Equity that presents more than $2 in TA for every $1 in SHE and a ratio of less than $2 in Current Assets to every $1 in Current Liabilities. I do continue to hold some HOG for a possible recovery. I did take about a $9 per share loss on those shares sold, but I see other opportunities for diversification in my old "Holy Grail" criteria that I developed 10 years ago.
I also removed Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) from "My 20 Favorites" for having a Current Ratio problem (i.e. Current Assets to Current Liabilities).
I made a buy of Crocs, Inc. (CROX) at $9.96 per share with a p/e ratio of 5, plus a minimal brokerage fee.
I also bought Coach (COH) at $35.33 and Kinetic Concepts (KCI) at $38.31, plus a minimal brokerage fee.
Gene
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Buying HANS
Dear Diary,
I just bought some Hansen Natural (HANS) at $35.97 per share, plus a minimal commission.
Gene
I just bought some Hansen Natural (HANS) at $35.97 per share, plus a minimal commission.
Gene
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
"My 20 Favorites"
Dear Diary,
Having just received and read the Harley Davidson (HOG) 10-K report, I see that HOG plans to ship fewer bikes in 2008, worldwide, with more sales then product to sell. This is expected to make net diluted earnings rise 4% to 7% for the year, while the rest of the industry is now down 14% for the year. With the only negative a current ratio of 1.7 presently, I'll be buying HOG in time ahead.
D. J. Hirschfeld, Chairman of Buckle, Inc. (BKE) sold 100,000 shares of his company, "Value Line" reports. With 12.6 million shares held by Mr. Hirschfeld, I see no big deal going on here.
Relative Values based on the most recent 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield of 4.3%:
Name/ Symbol/ Expected '08 EPS/ Relative Value/ Current Price
1) Dental Supply/ XRAY/ $1.87/ $43.49/ $36.90
2) Stryker Corp./ SYK/ $2.90/ $67.44/ $63.83
3) Strayer Education/ STRA/ $5.00/ $116.28/ $169.97
4) Abercrombie & F/ ANF/ $6.00/ $139.53/ $70.77
5) Harley Davidson/ HOG/ $3.70/ $86.05/ $37.01
6) Medtronic/ MDT/ $3.00/ $69.77/ $49.08
7) Amer. Eagle O./ AEO/ $2.00/ $46.51/ $15.96
8) Hansen Natural/ HANS/ $2.10/ $48.84/ $32.37
9) Techne Corp./ TECH/ $2.45/ $56.98/ $65.24
10) Deckers Outdoor/ DECK/ $6.00/ $139.53/ $116.53
11) Chattem, Inc./CHTT/$3.90/$90.70/$65.78
12) Immucor, Inc./ BLUD/ $1.15/ $26.74/ $26.11
13) Kinetic Concepts/KCI/ $3.85/ $89.53/ $39.92
14) Zimmer Holdings/ ZMH/ $4.50/ $104.65/ $76.90
15) Amgen/AMGN/$3.60/$83.72/$42.27
16) Global Payments/GPN/$1.90/$44.19/$40.87
17) American Ecology Corp./ECOL/ $1.20/ $27.91/ $26.62
18) Tiffany & Co./ TIF/ $2.60/ $60.47/ $40.74
19) Buckle, Inc./ BKE/ $2.50/ $58.14/ $47.44
20) Coach, Inc./ COH/ $2.05/ $47.67/ $31.30
Gene
Having just received and read the Harley Davidson (HOG) 10-K report, I see that HOG plans to ship fewer bikes in 2008, worldwide, with more sales then product to sell. This is expected to make net diluted earnings rise 4% to 7% for the year, while the rest of the industry is now down 14% for the year. With the only negative a current ratio of 1.7 presently, I'll be buying HOG in time ahead.
D. J. Hirschfeld, Chairman of Buckle, Inc. (BKE) sold 100,000 shares of his company, "Value Line" reports. With 12.6 million shares held by Mr. Hirschfeld, I see no big deal going on here.
Relative Values based on the most recent 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield of 4.3%:
Name/ Symbol/ Expected '08 EPS/ Relative Value/ Current Price
1) Dental Supply/ XRAY/ $1.87/ $43.49/ $36.90
2) Stryker Corp./ SYK/ $2.90/ $67.44/ $63.83
3) Strayer Education/ STRA/ $5.00/ $116.28/ $169.97
4) Abercrombie & F/ ANF/ $6.00/ $139.53/ $70.77
5) Harley Davidson/ HOG/ $3.70/ $86.05/ $37.01
6) Medtronic/ MDT/ $3.00/ $69.77/ $49.08
7) Amer. Eagle O./ AEO/ $2.00/ $46.51/ $15.96
8) Hansen Natural/ HANS/ $2.10/ $48.84/ $32.37
9) Techne Corp./ TECH/ $2.45/ $56.98/ $65.24
10) Deckers Outdoor/ DECK/ $6.00/ $139.53/ $116.53
11) Chattem, Inc./CHTT/$3.90/$90.70/$65.78
12) Immucor, Inc./ BLUD/ $1.15/ $26.74/ $26.11
13) Kinetic Concepts/KCI/ $3.85/ $89.53/ $39.92
14) Zimmer Holdings/ ZMH/ $4.50/ $104.65/ $76.90
15) Amgen/AMGN/$3.60/$83.72/$42.27
16) Global Payments/GPN/$1.90/$44.19/$40.87
17) American Ecology Corp./ECOL/ $1.20/ $27.91/ $26.62
18) Tiffany & Co./ TIF/ $2.60/ $60.47/ $40.74
19) Buckle, Inc./ BKE/ $2.50/ $58.14/ $47.44
20) Coach, Inc./ COH/ $2.05/ $47.67/ $31.30
Gene
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Dropping GE and ENDP
Dear Diary,
"My 20 Favorites" list is maturing, as I've decided to drop General Electric (GE) and Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) from the list, replacing them with Chattem, Inc. (CHTT) and Amgen (AMGN) for my Buffett reasons.
General Electric (GE) has a problem with Return on Total Capital at 6% and Long term Debt at 10 times its Net Profit Margin.
Endo Pharmaceuticals ( ENDP) will need to replace substantial revenues in the near term, as Lidoderm is going into a generic version, I read.
Gene
"My 20 Favorites" list is maturing, as I've decided to drop General Electric (GE) and Endo Pharmaceuticals (ENDP) from the list, replacing them with Chattem, Inc. (CHTT) and Amgen (AMGN) for my Buffett reasons.
General Electric (GE) has a problem with Return on Total Capital at 6% and Long term Debt at 10 times its Net Profit Margin.
Endo Pharmaceuticals ( ENDP) will need to replace substantial revenues in the near term, as Lidoderm is going into a generic version, I read.
Gene
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