Friday, February 29, 2008

My 20 Favorites

American Eagle Outfitters

aeo$22.03
Medtronicmdt$49.63
Harley Davidsonhog$39.00
Tiffany & Co.tif$39.20
Abercrombie & Fitchanf$69.90
Hansen Naturalhans$41.94
Dental Supply Internationalxray$39.02
Stryker Corp.syk$65.54
Strayer Educationstra$156.82
Biometbmet$45.75
Patterson Companiespdco$35.52
Deckers Outdoordeck$117.01
General Electricge$33.4482
Forest Labsfrx$40.29
Zimmer Holdingszmh$76.16
Endo Pharm.endp$26.46
Global Paymentsgpn$40.30
American Ecology Corp.ecol$24.78
Buckle, Inc.bke$46.40
Coach, Inc.coh$30.91

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Medtronic

Dear Diary,

Medtronic (MDT) is reported to have a current ratio of 1.89. While I'd like to see this ratio at 2 or higher, I can live with it until it drops to below 1.

"Value Line" reports the Lond Bond Yield at 4.4% this week.

Gene

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Long Bond Yield

Dear Diary,

"Value Line" presents the 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield to be 4.28%.

I've narrowed my interest to 20 stocks out of about 2000 covered in "Value Line," for my Buffett purposes. I may list them in a few days. Per share earnings for the 20 is just a bit over 16% per annum on average, so we might expect as much as 40% compounded growth from the group, if I don't bother them too much. I've not yet invested in them, as a group.

Gene

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Minor Conflict of Information

Dear Diary,

I am reading in my "Value Line Investment Survery" materials that the long bond (30 year treasury bond) appears to be trading at 4.12%, while the Federal Funds Rate is at 3%. This 1.12% difference in numbers is not anything that will cause any panic in my investment calculations, but it does give me pause that neither Warren Buffett nor David Clark, both of whom examined and commented on my work in the past, has ever drawn my attention to this difference. Hum.

I'm studying Hansen Natural (HANS) today. It presents flawless numbers in "Value Line." I'm calling for a financial report tomorrow. With projected earning per share for 2008 at $2.10 per share, I calculate a relative value to the Federal Funds Rate (3%) at $70.00. On the other hand, the 4.12% yield on the long bond discussed above would present a relative value to be $50.97. Warren believes the average of all interest rates is 10%, which offers a relative value of $21.00. HANS is trading at $38.00 per share and growing earnings at 45% per annum.

HANS is not a giant monopoly, so the closer to the 10% calculation I can get, the better.

Gene

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Looking At Jones Soda

Dear Diary,

I've just called for a copy of the most recent financial report of Jone Soda Company (JSDA). This company seems to be gearing up for some interesting growth. The evident founder of the company has returned to be CEO after a rough 2007 and the resignation of the past CEO. I actually offered to go to work for them, I'm so impressed with the $6 share price and current ratio of 7. I think they need to raise prices and back off enough on marketing expenditures to show a profit and a wider net profit margin than the current 1, I'm seeing. They are spending money like a teenage boy trying to get a date with the homecoming queen, and they need a mature mind to tell them to take a breath.

Harley Davidson (HOG) shows a current ratio of 1.8, and I'm not happy about that; however, I'm going to sit until I see Spring sales before I change any position in the stock. The situation may quickly right itself. If the ratio drops to below 1, I will absolutly not tollerate holding the stock, as this will show flawed internal economics.

Everything else is doing fine.

I'm gonna waite on Pfizer (PFE) to buy up some other drug companies and get back into growing the company before I invest there.

Gene