Monday, August 25, 2008

Another Arbitrage

Dear Diary,

I just picked up shares of HUN for $13.52 per share, plus a minimal brokerage fee. The sale is to close "October 2" and represents a 107% gain over 6 weeks, based on my math. The close is to be at $28.00 cash. Buffett says that these 100% deals don't always get closed because of financing, etc., but some do work out. Broad diversification in the field is the key to the most stable returns Buffett has ever known.

CROX continues to sit at about $4 per share, but "Value Line" indicates it thinks the stock has $16 per share in it over the coming few years. I agree. This is a situation where the company is sitting in the economic downturn and opening a new production facility, the latter being Buffett's favorite dynamic and the former being probably his second favorite dynamic. My average purchase price is $8.98 per share.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is also sitting still at about $14 per share or 8 times earnings. It's all about the economic downturn.

Out of the 75 stocks in my long term non-arbitrage investment universe, only 16 have a widening Net Profit Margin. HANS is on target to hit $40 per share or 20 times earnings within the next several months.

Gene