Saturday, November 22, 2008

CROX Hammered

Dear Diary,

CROX, my major position over the past many months, just took a $148 million hit on earnings this quarter. Net Quick Assets was listed at $0.41 per share before the earnings announcement, so I'll be buying more if the stock drops from its current $1.04 a share price to get my average purchase price down below the current $8.31 a share to something closer to the Net Quick Asset figure.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is getting into buying range, with a p/e ratio of 12 now and a widening Net Profit Margin. All the "Holy Grail" situations I'm following just refuse to drop to a p/e ratio of 10, so I can buy them. This leaves me several buys into Net Quick Assets, as the vast majority of the stocks I follow have narrowing Net Profit Margins right now.

I read an economist who studies bear markets, and he believes the bottom of this one we're in is about 6,500 on the DOW Jones Industrial Average and should last another 15 months. I don't guess bottoms of markets, but bottoms of stock prices are supposed to be something in proximity to Net Quick Assets. What I own that doesn't go belly up should provide 300% to 1000% gains over the next few years and should make up for any losses.

Gene